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Study on the Impact of DemographicTransition on China's Long-term Economic Growth

Li Deshan;Xiao Tian;Yan Xin;  
The family planning policy in 1980's played a very important impact in China's demographic transition and economic development. Firstly,the relationship between population quantity and quality is empirically tested based on the data of 1% population sampling survey in 2005. Then,the long-term impact of China's " one-child policy" on demographic transition and economic growth is analyzed by extending the Galor and Weil model. Research shows that:the one-child policy has increased the level of human capital of one-child by nearly 27. 1% compared with non-onechild policy. The policy has accelerated the speed of demographic transition and made the "demographic dividend"come ahead of schedule. In the short term,population policies increase per capita income. However,in the long run,it will inhibit population growth and lead to more and more serious aging,which will inhibit the sustainable development of the economy. Therefore,liberalizing the population control policy not only can reduce the burden of labor support,but also can promote the long-term development of economic growth.
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