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Study on the Interactive Relationship between Regional Integration and Regional Coordinated Development——PVAR Model and Intermediary Effect Analysis Based on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Its Hinterland

Cheng Hao;Yang Guoliang;  
Since the report of the 19 th national congress of the communist party of China put forward the establishment of a more effective new mechanism for coordinated regional development,regional integration and regional coordinated development have become a new mechanism used by major economic regions in China to promote the implementation of regional coordinated development strategy. In this context,the effect of the interactive relationship between regional integration and regional coordinated development is worth further discussion. Based on the sample data of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its hinterland from 2003 to 2016,this paper explores the interactive relationship between regional integration and regional coordinated development and its development trend with the panel vector autoregressive( PVAR) model. Then,from the perspective of three mediating effects,namely infrastructure associated effect,industrial structure effect and scientific and technological innovation effect,the paper analyzes the internal mechanism and transmission mechanism of the interaction between regional integration and regional coordinated development. The results show that there is a significant double positive interaction between regional integration and regional coordinated development,and the effect of regional coordinated development on regional integration is stronger than that of regional integration on regional coordinated development. Internal mechanism investigation showed that infrastructure associated effect,industrial structure effect and science and technology innovation effect are to the coordinated development of regional integration and regional interaction plays a partial mediation effect,the effect of industrial structure in the interactive relationship between the transmission function of the strongest,infrastructure associated effect and science and technology innovation effect in mixed in the interaction of different directions. The study of this paper has certain guiding significance for the establishment of a more effective new mechanism of regional coordinated development and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its hinterland.
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