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Research on failure forecasting of the aircraft's air-conditioning cooling subsystem

WANG Hui;XU Kun;School of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China;  
In recent years, the aircraft's air-conditioning cooling subsystem suffers too much maintenance, which results in the inefficient operation of airlines. In this article, a new method of failure modeling is proposed based on the failure-related data of a certain type of aircraft. As for the specific component-the heat exchanger with excessive maintenance, the extended model of Weibull distribution is applied. The analysis is conducted on the model's fitting quality under such conditions as two-parameter Weibull distribution, three-parameter Weibull distribution, double Weibull distribution, three Weibull distribution and twophased Weibull distribution. Via the renewal process, the expected failure number is obtained. Then, the the whole subsystem is modeled with the aid of power-law process, and the Laplace algorithm is applied for failure forecasting. The accuracy of model is verified by a series of theoretical calculation and the data on maintenance, and based on this, the maintenance plan is modified.The model can be applied by airlines to forecast the failure of the subsystem and its components and to work out the reliabilityrealted solutions.
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