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A caries prediction model based on salivary S.mutans、S.sobrinus in preschool children.

XING Xiang-hui,GUO Hao,LI Zhi-bang,SHUAI Yi,YANG Fu-sheng.Department of Pediatric Dentistry,School of Stomatology,Fourth Military Medical University,Shanxi Xi'an 710032,China  
Objective:Mutans streptococci,especially s.mutans and s.sobrinus,were believed as the chief cariogenic bacteria in oral cavity,and it might be useful to quantify them in saliva for screening children in high caries risk.This study was designed to build a sensitive and effective prediction model in preschool children by quantitatively detecting the salivary s.mutans and s.sobrinus.Method: In the beginning of our investigation,the dental caries of 203 preschool children with the age from 3 to 5 years were examined and recorded,and 1 ml unstimulated whole saliva were acquired from each individual,then they were tested for s.mutans and s.sobrinus quantification by the FQ PCR methods established in the previous studies.6 months later,the children were reexamined for caries status.Then these data were analysis by Logistic Regression Analysis.Result:In the final Logistic prediction model,3 factors were chosen for their high relationship with future caries,they were saliva s.mutans counts,saliva s.sobrinus counts and past caries experiences(dmfs value).The evaluation indexes for this caries prediction model were as follows: Se =81.52 %,Sp =92.78 % correct rate(π)= 89.24 %.Conclusions: the Logistic prediction model established in this study displayed a specific and sensitive property compared with the other prediction models,and this study make it possible to screen the high risk children in active caries more earlier.
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