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Mathematical Analysis of the Interactive Mechanism Between Population Growth and Economic development——An Granger Cause-effective Analysis and Co-integration Method Based on Level VAR Model

ZHANG Xiao-li1/2,WANG Cheng-zhang1,HE Lun-zhi2 1.School of Economics and Management,Southwest Communication University,Chengdu 610030, 2.School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumuqi,830046  
This paper firstly theoretically reviews the interactive mechanism between population growth rate and economical development in the perspective of eco-environment carry capacity and the demonstration of that a proper size of population is the basic condition of economic development in a given region while the too much faster increasing of population than the demand and affordance of economic development will harass the economic development.To empirically demonstrate this interactive mechanism,this paper use the Granger Cause-effective Analysis and Co-integration method based on Level VAR model to study the interaction between China's economic development and population growth.The result shows in short time and under 5%(sig),population growth rate doesn't have evident effects on economic development while the economic development has evident effects on population growth;in the long run,population growth rate and economic development have an evident negative correlate interaction.Thus it is clear to China the control of population growth rate especially the rural population growth is important to the economic development and vice versa.
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