APPLYING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO PREDICT THE OCCURRENCE TRENDS OF WHEAT APHID IN WESTERN HENAN PROVINCE
Li Dingxu ( Yuxi Agricultural college ) Guo Shishan ( Luoyang Plant Protection & Qaurantine Station )
Based on the field investigating data of wheat aphid during 1975-1991,the occurrence trends of wheat aphid in westen Henan province in1990 were predicted by applying Markov Chain model. The results indicate that the occurrence trend of wheat aphid in 1991 will be grade 2, the umber of wheat aphid per hundred stem is 501-1000. The resulsts of testing the data of ten years past show that the accuracy of the method is 90%.