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《Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics》 2018-03
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Fuzzy Combination Forecasting Model Based on the Criterion of Area Type Center-error and Its Application

DING Zhen-ni;CHEN Hua-you;ZHU Jia-ming;School of Mathematical Sciences,Anhui University;  
In the complex system forecasting,system information is often depicted by fuzzy uncertainty information instead of real number or interval number.This paper constructs a new combined forecasting model with triangular fuzzy number information.Due to the defects of endpoint error criterion for traditional triangular fuzzy number,the concept of area centers of the triangular fuzzy number is put forward,and their calculation expressions are given.On this basis,we obtain the area centers relationship between the combination forecasting and each single forecasting.A new fuzzy combination forecast model is established based on the criterion of area type center-errors,and it is proved that the model is at least non-inferior.Finally,an example of the proposed combination forecasting model is illustrated to show its better effectiveness,and sensitivity analysis is given for the parameters of the model.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71371011;71501002);; 安徽省高等学校自然科学研究项目(KJ2016A250)
【CateGory Index】: O159
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