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《Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology》 2004-01
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Prediction of Summer Climate over China in 2002 with IAP9L-AGCM and Its Performance

LANG Xian-mei,WANG Hui-jun, ZHOU Guang-qing,JIANG Da-bang (LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100029,China)  
By using the IAP 9-level grid-point Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP9L-AGCM) and IAP-ENSO forecasting system,developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences,ensemble predictions of summer climate anomalies over China in 2002 are carried out in this study.Moreover,its performance is evaluated and compared with the observation.It is shown that the predicted pattern of climate anomalies generally agrees well with the observed one over most regions of China,such as positive precipitation anomalies over South and West China,as well as drought over most part of areas between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River valley.In addition,the weakened East Asian summer monsoon at 850hPa,anomalous divergence center over the Qingzang Plateau,and cyclonic circulation anomaly over North Pacific are all well captured.Also,it is revealed that the predicted pattern of summer (JJA mean) rainfall anomalies is more reliable than monthly one,and the prediction skill is gradually decreased through June to August.
【Fund】: 国家杰出青年基金项目(40125014);; 国家自然科学基金群体项目(40221503);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-203)
【CateGory Index】: P456
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