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《Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology》 2004-06
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A Complex Agro-System Forecast Model Based on Chaotic Attractor

CHEN Zhao-xia~1,ZHOU Hong~1,YU De-gui~2(1.Institute of Science;2.Institute of Agronomy;Nanjing Agriculture University,Nanjing210095,China)  
Agricultural production is a process uniting natural and economic reproductions,and the agro-system is a complex system coupling natural ecological system,and social economic system,which is nonlinear and dissipative.The system behavior reflecting the nonlinear interaction of factors of the complex agro-system forms the whole evolutional locus of the system.Viewing from long term evolution ,the agro-system manifests chaotic characters due to interior self-organization and synergetic effects and exterior stochastic perturbation effects,therefore the complex system is unpredictable for a long term.According the prection standard of complex agro-system,on the basis of reconstructing the phase space of the complex agro-system,a nonlinear chaotic dynamic prediction model based on chaotic attractor is developed in this paper,and the model is analyzed and verified with the relevant data of Chendu agro-system.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70173026)
【CateGory Index】: S12
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