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《Research of Agricultural Modernization》 2011-01
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Analysis and Prediction of Location Advantage on Maize Production in Northeast of China

SHU Kun-liang1,2a,ZHANG Xue-qing2b,XU Xiao-hong2a,YANG Shuang2a,GUO Qing-hai1,2a(1.College of Economics and Management,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun,Jilin 130118,China; 2.Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences,a.Agricultural Development Research Center of Northeast Region, b.Agricultural Economy and Information Service Center,Changchun,Jilin 130033,China)  
The authors studied variation of regional advantage on maize production in northeast of China by location quotient theory based on time-series data of grain production from 1978.And predicted its trend by ARIMA model from 2010 to 2015.The results shown that Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang all had location advantages comparing to the overall level of China in maize production from 1978.The location advantage of Jilin prior to Liaoning,and Liaoning to Heilongjiang,and their location advantages showed downward trend overall from 1978.The maize capacity of Northeast will rise slightly from 2010 to 2015 without considering the impact of exogenous variables,but the location advantage of Jilin and Liaoning will be further weakened as Heilongjiang take on modest fluctuations but more smooth.In order to stabilize the location advantage on maize production of Northeast,we can take core maize producing area construction and improve yields by technology progress as main strategies.
【Fund】: 科技部支撑项目专题:玉米生产风险预警模型研制及预警系统实证研究(2009BADA9B03-05);; 国家自然科学基金:中国农户粮作经营行为与效率的实证研究——以粮食主产区东北三省为例(71073068)
【CateGory Index】: F326.11
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