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《Research of Agricultural Modernization》 2012-01
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Virtual Demand Forecasting and Demand and Supply Coordination Degree Analysis of Raw Milk in China

OU Bian-ling,LIU Xiu-li,WANG Shou-yang(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)  
In this paper,the concept of virtual demand of raw milk was introduced first,then the forecasting model of China's virtual demand of raw milk was established.Applied the model,we got that the virtual demand of raw milk would reach 47.466 million tons,49.776 million tons and 52.12 million tons respectively in year 2011-2013.Applied grey relational analysis,it is estimated that the demand and supply degree of raw milk in China from 2011 to 2013 is 0.64,which means there will be serious imbalance between supply and demand of raw milk in China.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划重点项目“农产品数量安全智能分析与预警关键技术支撑系统及示范”(编号:2009BADA9BB01-4);; 国家自然科学青年基金项目“可持续发展水资源管理的投入占用产出模型研究和应用”(编号:70701034);国家自然科学基金项目“非线性投入占用产出技术及其在预测中的应用”(编号:60874119);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目“耕地保育与持续高效现代农业试点工程”(编号:KSCX-YW-09);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目“国民经济和社会发展中若干重大问题研究”(编号:KJCX2-YW-S8)
【CateGory Index】: F326.3;F224
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 QIAN Gui-xia12,XIE Jing1 (1.College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010021,China;2.Sino-US Center for Conservation,Energy and Sustainability Science in Inner Mongolia,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010021,China);Contradictory Relationship between Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China — an Empirical Analysis[J];Research of Agricultural Modernization;2010-03
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 HU Hao,ZHANG Feng(College of Economics & Management,Nanjing Agriculture University,Nanjing 210095,China);The economic analysis on the production layout of broiler industry in China[J];Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences);2010-01
2 LIU Wei,CHEN Shu-zhang,MA Heng-yun(College of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou,Henan,450002);Empirical Study on Supply Response of China's Fresh Milk——An Investigation based on Provincial Panel[J];Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition);2011-02
3 WANG Gui-xia,WU Wen-xin(College of Management,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118,China);An Empirical Analysis of the Development of Cattle Industry in Jilin Province of China[J];Journal of Jilin Agricultural University;2006-03
4 Liu Yan,Zhang Zhenghe(School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing,100083);Analysis on the Cost Factors of Different Scale Broiler Farming[J];Technology Economics;2010-07
5 LU Chang-hua1,HUANG Sheng-hai2,WU Zi-min1,HU Yi-nong3,BAI Yun-feng3,BAI Hong-wu3(1.Institute of Veterinary Medicine,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Animal Diseases Diagnostic and Immunology,Ministry of Agriculture,National Center for Engineering Research of Veterinary Bio-products,Nanjing 210014,China;2.Jiangsu Institute of Poultry Science,Yangzhou 225003,China;3.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environmental Sciences,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing 210014,China);Construction of Animal Health Risk Management Mechanism and Rational Allocation of Management Resources[J];Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences;2010-04
6 QIAN Gui-xia,XIE Jing(School of Economics & Management,Inner Mongolia University,Huhhot 010021,China);Imbalance between Raw Milk Supply and Demand and its Influences on Dairy Industry in China[J];Journal of Inner Mongolia University(Philosophy and Social Sciences);2010-05
7 LI Jin,QIN Fu,DING Ping(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricutural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China);On Consumption Characteristics of Livestock Products and Development Trend[J];Research of Agricultural Modernization;2007-06
8 QIAN Gui-xia12,XIE Jing1 (1.College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010021,China;2.Sino-US Center for Conservation,Energy and Sustainability Science in Inner Mongolia,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010021,China);Contradictory Relationship between Raw Milk Supply and Demand in China — an Empirical Analysis[J];Research of Agricultural Modernization;2010-03
9 WANG Bang-zhao,DENG Ting-ting (School of Business Administration,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China);Reasons and measures of the lack of a sense of corporation social responsibility in the dairy enterprises in our country:taking the milk powder tainted with leather-hydrolyzed protein for example[J];Science-Technology and Management;2011-06
10 YU Hai-long,LI Bing-long(School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China);An Analysis on the Benefit Distribution of China's Dairy Industry Based on Industry Chain[J];Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics;2011-06
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 LU Chang-hua~1 HUANG Sheng-hai~2 WU Zi-min~1 HU Yi-nong~3 BAI Yun-feng~3 BAI Hong-wu~3 (1.Institute of Veterinary,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Animal Diseases and Immunology, Ministry of Agriculture,National Center for Engineering Research of Veterinary Bio-products,Nanjing 210014,China;2. Jinagsu Institute of Poultry Science,Yangzhou 225003,China;3.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Nanjing 210014,China);Study of animal health risk management mechanism and manage resources for a reasonable allocation[A];[C];2010
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 ZHANG Ming-Li, JU Xiao-feng, LI Xin(Management college, Harbin Institute of Tachnology,Harbin 150001,China);Surveying analysis of consumer behavior and preference in dairy products market of China's cities[J];China Dairy Industry;2002-03
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