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《Research of Agricultural Modernization》 2014-01
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An Assessment of Food Security Based on Cultivated Land Pressure Index: a Case of Hangzhou

YANG Li-xia;Department of Resource Environment & Urban and Rural Planning Management, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics;  
By analyzing the dynamic change of cultivated land and food production during 1990-2010, this paper researched the change characteristic of the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and cultivated land pressure index based on the food demand for subsistence, nutrition and enjoyment, and forecasted food security situation during 2011-2030 by using the minimum area of cultivated land per capita, cultivated land pressure index model and three-point moving average method. The results showed the nutrition one of the three kinds of food demand was most accorded with the current food safety situation in Hangzhou. According to the standard of nutrition, the minimum area of cultivated land per capita was 0.041 hm2in 1990, which quickly increased to 0.069 hm2in 2010. During 1990-2001, the cultivated land pressure index k 1, and 2002-2022, k 2, 2023-2030, k 3. The food security in Hangzhou is extremely unsafe, and in the future, the food security situation will become worse. In this case, the measures of increase agricultural investment, farmland transition reduction, the development of external agriculture and other measures should be induced to ensure the food safety.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目“农地转用过程中土地增值收益分配机制研究”(编号:411711151) “农户行为响应的农村面源污染治理研究”(编号:41371188);; 教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“基于BEHMs的农户生产行为水环境效应研究”(编号:11YJC630254);“土地收益分配机制研究”(编号:10YJA630197);; 浙江省哲学社会科学规划基金项目“农户生产行为的政策仿真”(编号:12JCGL19YB);“农地流转潜力研究”(编号:11JCGL12YB)
【CateGory Index】: F326.11
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