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Research on the comprehensive prediction methods for energy consumption of Yunnan based on the Shapley value

HUANG Yi1,3,ZHAO Guang-zhou1,WANG Yan-wei1,2(1.Management and Economics faculty of Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China; 2.Enrollment and Employment Department of Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China; 3.Energy Department of Yunnan Province Statistics Bureau,Kunming 650051,China)  
An accurate prediction of energy consumption in the future is the groundwork for formulating the strategic objectives of energy development and can provide the scientific basis for setting up energy policy and planning.In this paper,the energy consumption of Yunnan Province was predicted by the exponential smoothing model and the system dynamics model,respectively.Using the Shapley value method for cooperative games,the weight of each predicting model in the comprehensive predicting model was determined by distributing the total error.The comprehensive predicting model was therefrom constructed and used to predict the energy consumption of Yunnan Province.The result showed that the prediction accuracy of the comprehensive predicting model is higher than the individual models selected and the prediction of energy consumption is feasible and effective.
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