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《Agricultural Outlook》 2013-01
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Prospect of Urban Households' Fresh Milk Consumption Market in Guangdong Province——Based on Double-Hurdle Model Empirical Analysis

Wu Beibei,Chen Yongfu ( College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083)  
The objective of this study was to use a double-hurdle model to analyze determinants of urban households' fresh milk consumption,using the urban household sample data in Guangdong province from 2007 to 2009. The results showed that income growth and price of fresh milk had significant effects on fresh milk consumption at-home,both on participation and expenditure decision-making; price of feed grain ( as soybean meal) ,different age groups and owning refrigerator were also important determinants; meanwhile,egg price,the level of householders' education and family size had positive effects on the fresh milk consumption; families in developed regions consumed more fresh milk than those in less developed regions; the fresh milk consumption of urban householders in Guangdong province was decreasing over the years affected by the Sanlu milk formula scandal in 2008. Therefore,it's necessary to take effective measures to expand fresh milk consumption by consumers,enterprises and government.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑资助项目(2009BADA9B00)
【CateGory Index】: F426.82
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