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《Journal of Intelligence》 2015-02
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Application of Patent Scientometrics Methods in Technology Foresight——Take the New Energy Automobile as an Example

Liang Shuai;Ji Xiaotong;Li Yang;Institute of Science and Technology for development of Shandong;Soft Science Research Base of Shandong Province and Technology Innovation;Shandong Academy of Sciences Institute of Automation&Shandong Key Laboratory of Automation Electronic Technology;  
Due to the development and improvement of Technology Foresight theory,the comprehensive application of both qualitative and quantitative methods is used,which changes the single qualitative method-dominated situation in the previous starting stage.Presently,the Delphi method is the major method used in Technology Foresight,the quantitative analysis is still comparatively rare in the real case analysis in China.This article explores the foresight research in new energy automobile industry from the perspective of scientometrics,using technical activity analysis and patent co-appearance network to quantitatively analyze the RD frontiers and development trend in the industry.The results show that the future research focus mainly lies in new material,safe use of electricity,structural parts in battery,and related electric traction.
【Fund】: 山东省科学技术发展计划资助项目“基于大数据的海洋工程装备产业技术预见系统研发与应用”(编号:2013GZC20101)
【CateGory Index】: F426.471;F273.1
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