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《Journal of Qinghai Normal University(Natural Science Edition)》 2009-03
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Time Series Analysis and Forecast Model of Annual GDP of China Based on Box-Jenkins Methods

ZHAO Xiao-kui(The Legal and Commercial Institute,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)  
This paper discusses the annual GDPseries of China since 1966through 2006 which mainly applies the time series technology based on Box-Jenkins methods,verifies the time series characteristics,then studies how the ARMA model is adopted,and approves that the GDPseries satisfies the ARMA model condition.This paper also gives the forecasting results of the future GDPwith those models,which indicate the ARMA model could bean effective and practical way to analysis and forecast Annual GDP of Chinawith high precision.
【CateGory Index】: F222.33;F224
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 WANG Xiao-peng Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences,Qinghai Normal University,Qinghai Xining 810008,China CAO Guang-chao Department of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Qinghai Normal University Qinghai Xining 810008,China DING Sheng-xi Department of Economics,Qinghai Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;Time Series Analysis and Forecast Model of Annual Rain-Fall on South of Qinghai Plateau Based on Box-Jenkins Methods[J];Application of Statistics and Management;2008-04
【Co-citations】
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1 ;青海省城镇居民收入差距的实证分析[J];Ascent;2005-05
2 GU Xingrong;The Index, Model and Deduction of Scientific Technology Activity[J];Evaluation & Management;2006-01
3 Cai Wenqing et al.;Evaluation of the Measuring Method of Information Value[J];Journal of Intelligence;2009-04
4 LIU Zhi-ting,ZHANG Min(College of Economy and Management,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266061,China);Calculational analysis on the contribution of science and technology progress to the economic growth in Qingdao[J];Journal of Qingdao University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences);2006-04
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6 LI Zi-nai 1, LU Chuan-yi 2(1. School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University;2. Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China);The Quantitative Analysis on Contribution of Management Innovation to the Economic Growth[J];Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences);2002-02
7 LIU Xiao-ping (Department of Economics, Tsinghai University, Qinghai 810016, China);Analysis on the Consumption Demand of the Urban Resident in Qinghai by ELES Model[J];Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences);2004-02
8 Li Yunsong,Hua Cuncai(School of Mathematics,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming Yunnan650092,China);On the Single-equation Model of Econometrics for the Grain's Production of Our Country[J];Journal of Qijing Normal University;2005-06
9 HUANG xue-yan(Mathenatics and Computer Science Department of Qinzhou College, Qinzhou 535000,China);Preliminary Survey on Teaching Combines WIth The Application Software For Econometric[J];;2006-03
10 ZHANG Sheng-jie (Department of Statistics,Chongqing University of Technology and Business,Chongqing 400067,China);A Empirical Analysis of External Transference about Rural Surplus Labors in Western China[J];Market & Demographic Analysis;2005-03
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1 JIANG Dajun, LIN Qiangu, HE Muguan, ZHU Jitao, LI Jinming (Ironmaking Plant of PanZhihua Iron & Steel Co.Ironmaking Plant PanZhihua New Steel&Vanadium Company SiChuan Province Postcode 617024);THE APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING SINTER COMPONENT[A];[C];2008
2 ;Application of Bootstrap on a specific economic time series[A];[C];2009
3 FU Qiang~1 ZHANG Lai-bin~1 DUAN Li-xiang~1 LIU Nan~2 (College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China)1 (Department of Exploitation and Project,Tarim Oilfield,Kuerle 841000,China)2;Research on Compressor Valve Fault Forecasting Based on Fusion Feature and SVM[A];[C];2009
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5 FENG Qin-liang~(1,2),CHEN Jian-cheng~1,ZHANG Xiao-jing~3 (1.School of Economy & Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083 2.Vocational Technical College of Ecological Engineering in Guangxi,Guangxi 545003 3.Economic Developing and Researching Center,State Forestry Bureau,Beijing 100714);Empirical Analysis of employment elasticity in State-owned Forest Areas[A];[C];2008
6 Chen Haorui~1,Gao Zhanyi~2,Huang Jiesheng~1,Wang Shaoli~2 (1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wu Han University,Wu Han 430072,China;2.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research3eijing 100048,China;);Analysis on relationship among shallow groundwater level,human activities and climate change in Yundong Plain[A];[C];2009
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 SHI Mei-juan (Dept.of statistics,shanghai Univrsity of finance and Economics,Shanghai 200083.China);The Application of ARIMA Model in Investing Forecast in Fixed Assets of Shanghai[J];Application of Statistics and Management;2005-01
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