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《Journal of Qinghai Normal University(Natural Science Edition)》 2009-03
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Time Series Analysis and Forecast Model of Annual GDP of China Based on Box-Jenkins Methods

ZHAO Xiao-kui(The Legal and Commercial Institute,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)  
This paper discusses the annual GDPseries of China since 1966through 2006 which mainly applies the time series technology based on Box-Jenkins methods,verifies the time series characteristics,then studies how the ARMA model is adopted,and approves that the GDPseries satisfies the ARMA model condition.This paper also gives the forecasting results of the future GDPwith those models,which indicate the ARMA model could bean effective and practical way to analysis and forecast Annual GDP of Chinawith high precision.
【CateGory Index】: F222.33;F224
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10 ZHANG Sheng-jie (Department of Statistics,Chongqing University of Technology and Business,Chongqing 400067,China);A Empirical Analysis of External Transference about Rural Surplus Labors in Western China[J];Market & Demographic Analysis;2005-03
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