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《Meteorological Science and Technology》 2018-05
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Application of Low-Frequency Synoptic Map in Forecasting Heavy Rainfall in Guizhou Province

Li Zhongyan;Sun Zhaoxuan;Zhang Jiaoyan;Wu Zhanping;Guizhou Climate Center;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resource;Sichuan Climate Center;  
Applying the low-frequency synoptic map,the statistical prediction model of heavy rainfall in Guizhou Province is established based on the EOF analysis and statistical analysis of 500 hPa low frequency flow field corresponding to 59 regional precipitation processes from 2011 to 2015.The local applicability of the method is assessed by means of the accuracy rate of the 2016 forecast results applying extrapolation.The results indicate that the six key regions of the low frequency systems for Guizhou heavy rainfall are:west of Lake Baikal(Region 1,40°to 70°N,80°to 110°E),east of Lake Baikal(Region 2,40°to 70°N,110°to 150°E),east of Southwest China to central China(Region 3,25°to 40°N,100°to 120°E),western Pacific(Region 4,10°to 40°N,120°to 140°E),Bay of Bengal(Region 5,0°to 25°N,70°to 100°E),southern of China(Region 6,0°to 25°N,100°to 120°E).The prediction model of the heavy rainfall in Guizhou is:the low frequency anti-cyclone appeared in the Region 1 and the low frequency cyclone in Regions 3 and 5 and the low frequency system activity in Regions 2 and 6.According to the cycle of the low frequency system in each key area,the forecasting experiment was carried out in 2016 flood season.The prediction accuracy was 39.2%,which indicates that the application of low frequency map method is well in predicting the heavy rainfall process in Guizhou.
【Fund】: 中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013031)“贵州省气候变化影响评估及应对服务”;; 贵州省气象局青年基金项目(黔气科合QN[2017]04号);; 贵州省气候诊断业务项目共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.6
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