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《Meteorological Science and Technology》 2018-05
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Comparison of Three Models for Predicting Rape Yields in Jiangxi

Yu Yanwen;Yang Aiping;Cai Xiaoqin;Deng Bin;Fuzhou Meteorological Service;Agricultural Meteorological Center of Jiangxi;  
Based on the meteorological factors(light,temperature,and rainfall)and rape yield data from1990 to 2015,the Key Meteorological Factor Model(KFM),the Climate Suitability Model(CSM)and PTEP(Product of Thermal Effectiveness and PAR)model are used in the simulation and the prediction of rape yields.The results show that:in the back-testing,the fitting effect of PTEP is the best,but CSM does not pass the significant test of 0.05 levels,while KFM at flowering stage is relatively poor.In the prediction test,the accuracies of all the three models prediction are greater than 90%.The probabilities of the annual prediction accuracy of KFM,CSM and TPM above 95% are 80%,60% and 80%,respectively.Compared with SRM and CSM,PTEP is more suitable for the forecast service of rape production in Jiangxi Province.
【Fund】: 中国气象局“国内外作物产量气象预报专项”项目资助
【CateGory Index】: S565.4;S165.27
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