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Study on forecast signal of Meiyu onset in Jiang-huai region

Liu Lianye,Fu Xiaoxia,Lin Mingli,Yin Baorong,Liao Zhonghui,Shen Fang (1.Xiangtan Meteorological Bureau,Xiangtan 411100;2.Hunan Lightning Protection Center,Changsha 410007)  
The variation of Meiyu nearly 50 years is analyzed by Meiyu characteristic quantity data from 1954-2003 and America NCAR/NCEP reanalysis.The trend of its interannual and interdecadal is pointed out and the relationship among five Meiyu characteristic quantities is analyzed.Early or late Meiyu onset has a significant effect on Meiyu quantity.Forecasting the date of Meiyu onset will help to judge drought and flood situation.The factors affected by Meiyu and the relativity of early or late Meiyu onset are studied based on correlation analysis.The results show that early or late Meiyu onset in Jiang-huai region is closely connected with South Asian high-pressure in early May,June and large scale circulation of Northern hemisphere in early winter.These factors have a good sense of direction to predict annual change of early or late Meiyu onset in Jiang-huai region.
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