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PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

Zhu Shengming Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Science Institute,NanjingCao Hongxing Academy of Meteorological Science,State Meteorological Adiministration,Beijing  
In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul- taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorological field.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te- chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum- meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,the numerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order of time series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.
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