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Methods and Uncertainties of Meteorological Forecast

MU Mu~(1,2) CHEN Boyu~(1,4) ZHOU Feifan~3 YU Yanshan~2 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics.Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing 100029 2 Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves.Institute of Oceanology.Chinese Academy of Sciences.Qingdao 266071 3 Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms.Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing 100029 4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.Beijing 100049  
The variation and improvement of meteorological forecast method are reviewed in a simple and explicit way,based on historical records on meteorological phenomena and a brief development history and status of atmospheric sciences.The present operational prediction skill and main advancements of the relevant researches are summarized as well.Uncertainties in the result of meteorological forecast are discussed from the perspective of numerical forecasting.Moreover,the way for public to understand and utilize ensemble forecast products is also presented by explaining the principles of ensemble forecast in detail.
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