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The Probability Ellipse Method of Typhoon Track Forecast

Zhu Dingzhen;Fan Yongfu;Zhou Zengkui(Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008)  
ased on the analysis of operational process of typhoon prediction,an objective comprehensive model of probability ellipse is designed to determine the typhoon track forecast. It isa new taste for synthetical application of each track forecasting methods and automatical objective decision. The difficult technique of automatic distinguish and the selection of objectivedecision reference point in software design are solved. The result shows it is better than thegeneral regression decision level.
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