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36-hours Torrential Rain Forecast with T42 Output in Anhui Province

Zhang Mingyu;Yuan ye;Yang Jinxi(Anhui Meteorological Observatory,Hefei 230061 )  
The sectional torrential rain forecast in Anhui province was discussed during flood period with the application of the step wise regression and triple discriminatory with T42 predicting data of 48 hours instead of the real-time diagnosis. This test was conducted during 1993-1994. Its results show that (1) the CSI of the torrential rain prediction was from 0. 30 to0' 71,both methods could be used in the torrential rain forecast in Anhui; (2) the predictingeffect of the regression was better than discriminatory; (3)the predicting effect in surplusMei-yu rainfall was better than that in deficient Mei-yu years.
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