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Comparison in Rainfall Forecast between NMC and HLAFS

Liu Huanzhu \ Huang Zhuo(National Meteorological Center, Beijing, 100081)  
 set of objective methods for assessing rainfall forecast was designed. It can be applied to either the forecasts of weather forecaster, or those from numerical weather prediction models. On analyzing the rainfall forecasts during the period from July to September 1996, it was shown that, for the forecasts of torrential rain, the TS score of 24 hour forecasts, it is even higher than the corresponding climate probability except in the Northwestern China region, presenting a positive skill. Both forecasters and HLAFS produced more " point over"(PO) than " Not Hit" (NH) medium and light rainfall. Furthermore, forecasters produced more PO forecasts for the rainfall over the Northwestern China.
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