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《Reform》 2013-01
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Chinese Demographic Transition Characteristics and Economic Unbalance Correction from the Perspective of Induced Change

Yang Jijun  
The paper focuses on the importance about the population structure on the global economic imbalance.We think that the kind of country with "demographic dividend" often trigger trade surplus,the kind of country with "demographic debt" correspond to trade deficit.The economic imbalance caused by the population structure is the outcome what different countries deploy the resources and improve the economic efficiency.Because population structure tends to be steady in a long-term,a country cannot be permanently into unbalance.In addition,according to aging population as well as the Lewis turning point approximation on China,we present from birth rate,retirement age,international migration policies and total factor productivity smoothing population age structure,promote laborintensive industry by the "race to the bottom" to the "race to the top".
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金项目“人口年龄结构、高储蓄率与外贸失衡的传导机制与相关政策研究”(批准号:11CJY030);; 教育部人文社会科学基金项目“中国的劳动收入占比:测算方法构建、多重因素分解与刘易斯拐点逼近后的政策治理思路”(批准号:12YJC790017)
【CateGory Index】: C924.2;F124
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