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《Reform》 2017-01
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Influencing Factors, Management Mechanism and the Fluctuation Trend of RMB Exchange Rate

Li Jianwei;Yang Lin;  
The RMB effective exchange rate once appeared to keep on appreciating sharply during RMB exchange rate formation mechanism transferring from pegged to the US dollar to peg to a basket of currencies, while the RMB exchange rate management system changed from a fixed exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate. The continued appreciation result in the overvalued of RMB exchange rate. After the reformation of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism which occurred on August 11 in 2015, the RMB effective exchange rate continued to depreciate. This depreciation resulted directly from the expending capital outflows caused by a large outflow of hot money, but it is also a reasonable correction to the early overvalued of RMB exchange rate. The depreciation spaces of RMB effective exchange rate and the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar are limited, because the overvalued of RMB exchange rate has been corrected completely. But there is still substantial depreciation for the exchange rates of RMB to euro and Japanese Yen and the currencies of surrounding countries. The policy of RMB exchange rate should be maintaining the exchange rate stable at a reasonable level around the equilibrium exchange rate, and it is necessary to further improve the formation and management mechanism of RMB exchange rate.
【CateGory Index】: F832.6
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