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《Reform》 2018-05
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Policy Evaluation of Local Government Real Estate Market Regulation based on Restriction of Purchase, Loan and Sale

Huang Xin;Dong Xin;Ping Xinqiao;  
Based on the empirical research of the real estate market regulation policy effect on house price in hot cities from 2008 to 2017, we find 1 percent housing loan rate raise can reduce house price growth rate by 2.86 percent at the same month, the effect reach the strongest after 8 months and lose efficacy after 20 months. 10 percent raise of down-payment ratio can reduce 0.62 percent of house price growth rate after 2 months, the effect get strongest after 4 quarters and vanish after 7 quarters. When sale restriction reinforce 1 level, the house price growth rate will significantly decrease by 0.8 ~1.2 percent in 3 ~4 months. When purchase restriction reinforce 1 level, the house price growth rate can only decrease after 14 months by 0.5 percent, the effect get strongest and vanish after 16 months and 24 months. Lastly, 10% increase of land supply per capita will take effect after 18 months by weakly control house price growth, which reach strongest and vanish after 30 months and 38 months.
【Fund】: 国家社会科学基金重点项目“使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用研究”(批准号:14AZD010)
【CateGory Index】: F299.23;F832.479
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