Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Yangtze River》 2018-18
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Research on runoff prediction by Markov chain considering different state division methods

XIAO Guiyou;HUANG Weibin;MA Guangwen;DING Lijie;WANG Liang;College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company;  
In view of the shortcomings in single state division of traditional Markov chain method,the mean value-standard deviation method,frequency method,fuzzy method and fuzzy-set pair method are respectively used to divide the state of runoff into reservoir considering the distribution characteristics of inflow runoff,the fuzziness of wet and dry state partition and the inhomogeneity of seasonal runoff distribution. Then,the runoff situation of Pubugou Reservoir on the Dadu River is predicted by combining one-step prediction and multi-step weighted prediction and the influence of different state division methods and prediction methods on Markov chain prediction results are analyzed. The results show that the predicted results are more reasonable through considering the distribution of seasonal runoff,and the effect of the conventional Markov chain method on the prediction accuracy is obvious. The research provides a scientific basis for the application of Markov chain prediction in the future.
【Fund】: 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402205 2016YFC0402208);; 国家电网公司总部科技项目“西南电网雅砻江风光水互补优化调度策略研究”(SGSCDK00XTJS1700047)
【CateGory Index】: TV121
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved