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《Yellow River》 2012-01
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Risk Analysis and Assessment of the Water Conveyance System Operation in the East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

GENG Lei-hua1,JIANG Bei-lei1,FU Kai-wen2,MAO Yu-jun1(1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China; 2.Lianyungang Division,Jiangsu Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Lianyungang 222004,China)  
There are three failure modes on the levees in the water conveyance system in the East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.These are over flowing,seepage and instability.The mechanism of the risk to the water conveyance system was analyzed.The risk factors from the external load,internal structure and the operational management were identified.The criteria of the risk assessment were established by referring to the Dam Safety Assessment and the Code for design of levee project.The integrated risk probability was evaluated by AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive method.The failure lost degree of water conveyance was classified by cluster analysis method.Finally the risk degree of different sections in the water conveyance was evaluated by combining the risk probability and the failure lost.The results show that the failure risk of Gaoshui River is low,the Zhongyun River and Jiaodong water conveyance section are medium and the rest sections are lower.
【Fund】: “十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB04A09)
【CateGory Index】: TV68
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