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《热带气象学报(英文版)》 2009-01
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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND THE VARIATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

MA Li-ping 1, 2, 3, CHEN Lian-shou 2 (1. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044 China; 2. State Key aboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081 China; 3. Qinghai Provincial Climate Center, Xining, 810001 China)  
The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency is analyzed using the data of the Tropical Cyclone Year Book by the China Meteorological Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1949 to 2007. The observational results indicate that the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region (10°N – 20°N, 100°E – 140°E) increases by 0.6°C against the background of global warming, while the frequency of tropical cyclone geneses in this region decreases significantly. Generally, the rise of SSTs is favorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones, but it is now shown to be contrary to the normal effect. Most of the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) are generated in the ITCZ. This is quite different from the case in the Atlantic basin in which the tropical cyclones are mostly generated from the easterly wave. Our research results demonstrate that the ITCZ has a weakening trend in strength, and it has moved much more equatorward in the past 40 years; both are disadvantageous to the formation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our study also found that the ridge of the subtropical high tends to shift slightly equatorward, which is another adverse mechanism for the formation of tropical cyclones.
【Fund】: Specialized Project on Climate Change by China Meteorological Administration 2008;; Natural Science Foundation of China (40730948);; Typhoon foundation of 2004 (2004STB006) by Shanghai Typhoon Institute
【CateGory Index】: P444
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 Wang Hui~(1,2,3) Ding Yihui~4 He Jinhai~3 1 Laboratory of Climate Research,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081 2 National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081 3 NIM,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 4 National Climate Center,Beijing 100081;INFLUENCE OF WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC SUMMER MONSOON CHANGES ON TYPHOON GENESIS[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2006-03
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 CHEN Guanghua and HUANG Ronghui Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Influence of Monsoon over the Warm Pool on Interannual Variation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific[J];大气科学进展(英文版);2008-02
2 ZHANG Qingyun,TAO Shiyan,and PENG Jingbei State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;The Studies of Meteorological Disasters over China[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2008-04
3 LIU Ge1,2,SUN Shuqing1,ZHANG Qingyun1,and YING Ming3 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000493 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030;Characteristics of the Intraseasonal Oscillation of Intertropical Convergence Zone and Its Influence on the Periodical Tropical Cyclogenesis[J];Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences;2009-04
4 Wang Weiguo Ye Xiang Third Institute of Oceanography,SOA,Xiamen 361005,Fujian;Environmental significance of Longhu lake sediments in the Middle and Late Holocene,Jinjiang,Fujian[J];Journal of Palaeogeography;2009-03
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【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 Sun Ying Ding Yihui (National Climate Center, Beijing 100081);ANOMALOUS ACTIVITIES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND THE RELATED LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURES DURING 1998 AND 1999[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2002-05
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3 Wang Hui(NIM,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)Ding Yihui(National Climate Center,CMA,Beijing 100081) He Jinhai(NIM,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044);THE CLIMATE RESEARCH OF SUMMER MONSOON OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC[J];Acta Meteorologica Sinica;2005-04
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