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《Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering》 2012-04
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Flood control risk analysis model of impounding water in advance for Three Gorges reservoir

GUO Jiali,GUO Shenglian,LI Tianyuan,CHEN Guiya(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engneering Science, Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)  
For the Three Gorges reservoir,impounding water in advance without increase of its flood control risk is a feasible approach to efficiently utilize its floodwater resources and maximize its comprehensive benefits,such as flood control,power generation,navigation,drought relief and eco-environment protection.This paper puts forth a flood control risk analysis model using Bayesian method for design of the impoundment,in which a multi-input single-output system model is used to route the reservoir outflow until the flood control stage.Six impounding schemes were proposed and examined,and based on the daily flow data of 1951-2010,they were calculated and compared with the normal impounding scheme in terms of hydrological risk rate.The results show that impounding in advance produces no increase in the flood control risk of the middle Yangtze.
【Fund】: 国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B02)
【CateGory Index】: TV697.13
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