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《Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering》 2013-01
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Coincidence risk of flood hydrographs between Yangtze River and Qing River

YAN Baowei1,GUO Shenglian2,YU Wei3(1.School of Hydropower and Information Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074;2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;3.Changjiang Water Resources Commission Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planming,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010)  
Coincidence of flood hydrograph can be generalized as mathematical constraints of date interval and magnitude for flood occurrence.A multivariate hydrological analysis model was developed to estimate the flood coincidence risk between the Yangtze and the Qing River.In this model,the mixed von Mises distribution was introduced to describe the interval,and a Copula function was adopted to establish a trivariate distribution of the 15-days flood volume and its interval for each river.By this model,a coincidence risk of 21.9% was evaluated,the risk characteristics for different combinations of flood frequencies of the two rivers were analyzed.The results would provide a technical support to the united compensational operation of reservoirs on the Yangtze and the Qing River.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(51109085 51079100);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(HUST:2011QN069);; 武汉大学水资源与水电科学国家重点实验室开放基金(2011B080)
【CateGory Index】: P333.2
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