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《Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering》 2013-01
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Drought frequency analysis using stochastic simulation with maximum entropy model

ZHANG Ming1,JIN Juliang2,WANG Guoqing3,ZHOU Runjun 1(1.College of Civil Engineering,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu Anhui 241000; 2.College of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009; 3.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029.)  
This paper develops a model for drought frequency analysis using maximum entropy distribution to improve the reliability of analysis.This model adopts three steps.First,it calculates the probability density function(PDF) of the residual series of annual runoff after eliminating the dependent components with a auto-regression process.Second,it simulates the maximum entropy PDF of a purely random series generated by a Monte Carlo model with a rejection technique.Third,it calculates the negative run lengths for a simulated long-term annual runoff series,so that a frequency curve of these lengths was obtained and used in drought frequency analysis.Its application to the runoff at the Wenjiachuan station in the Kuye river basin indicates that its stochastic simulations are better than those with a P-III distribution method.And on the basis of a simulated annual runoff series of 10 000 years long for this station,the model predicts a probability of 2.6% and a return period of 203a for a severe 12a drought event.The stochastic simulation based on maximum entropy model,that does not rely on assumption and has better applicability,would be widely used in frequency analysis for hydrological and water resources systems.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(51079037);; 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001043);; 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金(2011492011)
【CateGory Index】: P333
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