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《Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering》 2013-01
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Safety behavior decision in hydroelectric engineering construction with uncertain risk aversion

CHEN Shu1,HU Zhigen1,LIU Quan1,GUO Jie2(1.School of Water Resource and Hydropower,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China; 2.Department of Water Resource,Conghua,Guangzhou 510900,China)  
This paper develops a safety behavior decision model for the investment enterprise and construction enterprise of hydropower engineering using multi-task principal-agent theory,and discusses the Stackelberg game strategies for the optimal safety behaviors of these enterprises in view of uncertain risk aversion.The results show that the incentive pay of safety task in the investment enterprise and the effort level of safety task in the construction enterprise are directly proportional to observable variables variance.The expected revenue of investment enterprise declines if it cannot set the risk aversion degree of construction enterprise.Particularly,in the case of uniform distribution of risk aversion,the prediction distortions of incentive pays and expected revenue become more serious as a result of more deviation in the risk aversion estimate.A case study is presented to demonstrate the results.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(51079115 10902078);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(201120602020006)
【CateGory Index】: TV513
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