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《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University》 2014-05
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Lifetime Prediction Method for Missile Electrical Connector Synthesizing Degradation Data and Lifetime Data

WANG Hao-wei;XU Ting-xue;ZHOU Wei;Department of Ordnance Science and Technology,Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University;Qingdao Campus,Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University;  
To improve the prediction accuracy of the lifetime of a certain type of missile connector,aprediction method synthesizing degradation data and lifetime data was proposed.By modeling the degradation data with Wiener process,modeling a small amount of lifetime data with inverse Gaussian distribution,establishing the reaction rate model with the generalized Eyring model,a comprehensive reliability model was established.Furthermore,the point estimates of the model parameters were obtained through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method,and the interval estimates were obtained through a bootstrap method.By comparing the prediction results,it was concluded that the approach synthesizing degradation data and lifetime data could improve the prediction accuracy.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(61273058)
【CateGory Index】: TB114.3
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