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Research on theory and application of earthquake casualty estimates

ZHENG Shansuo;ZHANG Ruiming;CHEN Fei;LONG Li;ZHOU Yan;ZHENG Jie;School of Civil Engineering, Xi′an University of Architecture and Technology;  
Earthquakes are one of the major disasters causing huge casualties in China. Rapid casualty estimates after earthquake are of great guiding significance for emergency earthquake relief work. In this study, a model for the estimation of the earthquake casualties was established by analyzing the main factors that affect the earthquake casualties and investigating the people density in different functional buildings, the indoor rate in different time periods and the casualty rate under different-level damages of different structures. Based on the seismic vulnerability curve database obtained from the experimental data, the structural vulnerability of buildings was analyzed. The casualty estimates of Baqiao District in Xi'an were obtained by the software called China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System Software(CEDLAS), which was developed by the writers′research group. Comparing with the actual earthquake damage data of the Wenchuan Earthquake and another empirical model, the feasibility and rationality of the theoretical method were verified. The method provides reference for the government to initiate earthquake emergency plan and organize earthquake relief work after the earthquake.
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