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《Journal of Shanghai Ocean University》 2019-01
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Forecasting model for spotted mackerel biomass based on grey system theory

ZHANG Chang;CHEN Xinjun;College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration,Ministry of Agriculture;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture;  
GM( 1,n) is established by the Spotted mackerel( Scomber australasicus) resources of the Pacific group which is supplied by Japan's central fisheries research institute from 1995 to 2012,combined with the sea surface temperature( SST) of spawning and feeding ground and tidal range. There are six models: GM( 1,1) without environmental factor; four GM( 1,2) models established by the SSTs of the feeding ground( 140°E-160° E,35° N-50° N,SST1),spawning ground 1( 130° E-132° E,30° N-32° N,SST2),spawning ground 2( 138°E-141°E,34°N-35°N,SST3) and tidal range of Kuroshio; GM( 1,5) established by all the factors. The average error of each model is 6. 72%,3. 73%,4. 41%,4. 78%,29. 56% and 19. 38% respectively. The results show that the GM models based on feeding and spawning grounds temperature have a high accuracy in the spotted mackerel resource forecast,and can be used into more researches. By analyzing the gray parameters a and b,it is concluded that the SST2 and SST3 are the most restrictive to the model,which means the fluctuation of those factors had the greatest effect on the amount,and the temperature of spawning ground has a high correlation with the resources. When compared with the optimum temperature,it is presumed that the mackerel resources in the appropriate temperature range can increase with the temperature of the spawning ground. The global warming and gradual increase of SST are likely to have a positive effect on the spotted mackerel stock.
【Fund】: 海洋局公益性行业专项(20155014);; 上海市科技创新行动计划(5DZ1202200);; 海洋二号卫星地面应用系统项目(HY2AHT-YWY-006)
【CateGory Index】: S932.4
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1 Li Yuesong;Pan Lingzhi;Yan Liping;Chen Xinjun;College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University;National Distant-water Fisheries Engineering Research Center,Shanghai Ocean University;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai Ocean University;East China Sea Forecast Center,State Oceanic Administration;East China Sea Fisheries Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences;;Individual-based model study on the fishing ground of chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus)in the East China Sea[J];海洋学报(中文版);2014-06
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【Co-citations】
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2 FENG Tian-rui;OUYANG Sen;WU Yu-sheng;WANG Ke-ying;School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology;;The optimal GM(1,N ) power supply forecasting algorithm for short term considering double trends of quarter power supply[J];电力需求侧管理;2015-05
3 QI Hao;ZHANG Wen;ZHANG Suping;Ocean University of China;Shandong Agriculture and Engineering University;;Interdecadal Variability and Trend Projection in Air Temperature in the Coastal Regions of the Northern China[J];海洋湖沼通报;2015-03
4 XU Kai-da;ZHU Wen-bin;ZHOU Yong-dong;Marine and Fishery Research Institute of Zhejiang Ocean University, Marine Fisheries Research Institute of Zhejiang Province, Key Research Station for Fisheries Resources of Main Fishing Ground, Ministry of Agriculture,Key Research Station of Sustainable Utilization for Marine Fisheries Resources;;Ecosystem-based Management on the Zhejiang Fishing Ground[J];浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版);2015-05
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6 YU Wei;CHEN Xinjun;YI Qian;TIAN Siquan;College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University;Collaborative Innovation Center for Distant-water Fisheries;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources of Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University;;A Review of Interaction Between Neon Flying Squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) and Oceanographic Variability in the North Pacific Ocean[J];Journal of Ocean University of China;2015-04
7 Su Hang;Chen Xinjun;Wang Jintao;College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University;Collaborative Innovation Center for Distant-water Fisheries;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai Ocean University;The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai Ocean University;;Influence of sea surface temperature changes on Scomber japonicas habitat in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea[J];海洋学报;2015-06
8 ZHAO Xue-da;KONG Ling-hua;ZHANG Li-mei;School of Science,Dalian Ocean University;;Prediction Models of Marine Fisheries Production and Output Value in Liaoning Province[J];数学的实践与认识;2015-07
9 XU Ze-tan;WANG Hong-ping;GU Han-mei;Marine Science and Technology School of Zhejiang Ocean University;;DNA Barcoding Carangids in Putuo Sea[J];浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版);2015-02
10 WANG Yan-ming;GAO Jian-yun;CHI Yan-zhen;TANG Zhen-fei;CHEN Si;Xiamen Meteorological Service Center;Laboratory of Strait Meteorology;Fujian Climate Center;;Statistical characteristics of persistent heavy rainfall during the first rainy season in South China under the background of Pacific sea temperature fields on different time scales[J];大气科学学报;2015-01
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