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《Mathematics in Practice and Theory》 2018-18
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The Key Factors on the Incidence of H7N9 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus

ZHAO Wu-qiong;LI Xiao-ling;YANG Li;LI Fan;HAN Fei-er;TANG San-yi;School of Mathematics and Information Science,Shaanxi Normal University;  
This paper focuses on the major factors which influence on the incidence of H7 N9 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus, such as spatial-temporal effects, environment factors and the age and gender characteristics of susceptible population. In combination of weekly reported cases and stochastic analyses, some interesting results related to H7 N9 control have been proposed. In particular, the main results indicate that the reported cases and outbreak of H7 N9 are seasonal, i.e. winter and spring are most serious seasons. Moreover, the center of the outbreak regions is coastal areas, and the main susceptible population is middle and old aged groups. Further, by building a time series model the number of weekly reported cases and death cases in China can be predicted from October 2017 to September 2018 based on historical statistic data. Finally, we discuss some possible treatments and control strategies with aims to mitigating H7 N9 outbreak in the near future by analyzing its cure rate ranged from 2014 to 2017.
【Fund】: 国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目资助(201710718028)
【CateGory Index】: R511.7
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