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《Journal of China Hydrology》 2012-01
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Variation Trend of Runoff in Fujiang River Catchment and Its Responses to Climate Change

WANG Guoqing1,2,LI Mi3,JIN Junliang1,2,LI Hongbing4,LIU Cuishan1,2,LIU Yanli1,2,YAN Xiaolin1,2(1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;2.Research Center for Climate Change,Nanjing 210029,China; 3.Hohai University,Nanjing 210029,China;4.Sichuan Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Chengdu 610036,China)  
Variation of runoff in the Fujiang River catchment was analyzed with Mann-Kendall method.Based on hypothetical scenarios and projections of HADCM3,responses of runoff to climate change were simulated using a simple water balance model.The results indicate that the recorded runoff in the Fujiang River catchment presented decreasing trend during 1955-2000,which mainly resulted from climate change.Although human activities across the catchment did put much effect on annual runoff amount,it altered seasonal distribution of runoff to some extent.The adopted monthly water balance model performed well for discharge simulation.The recorded and simulated discharges match well in general,except a little bit underestimation for some peak discharges.Relationship between changes in precipitation and changes in runoff under the fixed temperature change is a linear approaching.Under the same changes in precipitation,a unite change in temperature will result in an approximate change in runoff.Although projected runoffs under the different emission scenarios are different,water resources in the Fujiang River catchment will likely undergo decreasing trend,especially during the period after 2030,the decreasing range could beyond 5% as comparing to baseline in 1961-1990.
【Fund】: 水利部公益性行业专项“长江流域水资源演变规律及变化趋势分析”(201101003);; 中英瑞气候变化适应项目“气候变化对中国范围水资源的影响与适应策略”(ACCC201002);; 2009年度国家公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“河川径流变化归因分析关键技术研究”(Y509004)
【CateGory Index】: P333.1;P461
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