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《Statistics & Decision》 2018-17
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Comparison of Chinese Population Prediction Results and Influencing Factors

Shi Renbing;Chen Ning;Department of Sociology, Huazhong University of Technology and Science;  
The result of the population prediction is one important referential factor for scientific policy-making. However,studies on retrospective test of predicted results are often neglected in academia. This paper selects partial research findings of population prediction as samples, sets error rate as measurement indicators and integrates the reality of population development to exploit their reliability, on the basis of which to inspect the key factors that might affect the population prediction from three perspectives of basic data samples, parameter setting and prediction model.
【Fund】: 华中科技大学人文社科重大交叉项目(2016AD020);华中科技大学研究生创新基金资助项目(5003404012);; 武汉研究院基金资助项目(IWHS20173002)
【CateGory Index】: C924.2
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