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Xu Tao and Li Yun(Southwest Ptroleum Institute).NATUR.GAS IND.v.20,no.2,pp.98~100,3/25/2000.(ISSN 1000 0976;In Chinese)  
In the evaluation of natural gas exploration project,the conventional economic evaluation is an absolutely necessary link and the risk analysis is an important and non negligible link too.Because the investors are interested not only in the amount of the income brought by their investment,but also and still more in the safety of their investment,namely,if the investment can not be recovered by the scheduled time how much is the probability of loss?For this reason,quantitatively determining the degree of the risk to make the investors to understand how much the probability of loss is and,based on which,making a corresponding feasible decision in time is a problem of interest to both investors and evaluation workers.In this paper,starting with the concept of risk,trying to take the theory of probability,central limit theorem,definition of optimal statistic estimate and economic theory as the basis and according to the concrete situation of the natural gas exploration project,the formula to quantitatively determine the risk is derived.Finally,the application of this formula and the importance of the quantitative risk analysis are expounded in the concrete by way of example.
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