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《Natural Gas Industry》 2012-07
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Quantitative risk evaluation of human factors and failures in the gas drilling industry

Zhao Quanmin1,2,Fan Jianchun1,Zhang Hong2(1.School of Electric and Power Engineering,China University of Petrleum,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;2.Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100029,China)  
Unfortunately the gas drilling industry is always challenged by a high accident ratio,the proportion of which related to human factors is significantly high.However,there are no such better quantitative risk evaluation methods at present.In view of this,this paper presents a special risk evaluation method based on the Delphi Method for quantitatively estimating the accidents associated with human factors.Through expert analysis,the possibilities and severity values are obtained for 10 types of human factor risks associated with 11 main drilling activities,different levels of which are also calculated.The data matrix reveals that the highest risk types during a drilling process is the object striking(risk value is 3.9171 S/w-h),and the highest risk activity is associated with drilling penetration(risk value is 2.7475 S/w-h),and the accumulative risk value of main drilling activities is about 11.3947 S/w-h.The data can be used in tracking exceptionally high risk periods,strategically selecting human factor risk mitigation measures,and rationally determining the appropriate scope of safety,and eliminating the extremely high cumulative effects.After the method was adopted in field application by five different drilling crews,good results have been achieved,one of which is that the total reportable incident rate is reduced from 7.54% to 5.24%.
【CateGory Index】: TE28;F426.22
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1 ZHAO Chunlan,WANG Bing,GUO Ping(College of Technology,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan,610500,China);The Risk Probability Prediction of Drilling Operation Site Using ARIMA Model[J];Xinjiang Petroleum Geology;2013-04
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