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Analysis of the transmission effect of natural gas price fluctuation in China

Nie Guanghua1,2(1.School of Economics and Management,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.PetroChina Kunlun Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100101,China)  
The demand for natural gas is growing in such a rapid economic development in China at present that the natural gas price fluctuation will undoubtedly have an influence on national economy and people's livelihood.In view of this,this paper aims to make it clear the range and degree of such influence.First,the Econometric Approach was adopted to select variables and build a model.Both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods were then used to investigate into many different factors associated with natural gas price.On this basis,the VAR(Value at Risk) model was established by use of the Granger cause and effect test to further probe into the transmission effect of natural gas price fluctuation and mutual influence degree among economic variables.In conclusion,natural gas price fluctuation will not only lead to the price change of chemical products,but have a direct effect on the gross domestic product growth,which will result in the price level change.On the other hand,no obvious effect can be found at present on the electricity price whenever natural gas price changes.
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