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Zhang Qin (Yunnan Astronomicel Observatory, Academia Sinica, Kunming 650011)  
The dynamical behavior and the predictability for the monthly mean variations of the sunspot relative number in the modern era solar cycles (from January 1850 to May 1992) is approached by the theory of nonlinear dynamical system in this paper.The fractal dimension (D =2.8±0.1) for the variation process is computed. The results indicate that the variation process is a complex chaotic system with low dimension and can be described by finite number of parameters with the number of independent variables no less than 3 and no more than 7. The predictable time scale for the monthly mean variation of the sunspot number is also discussed. The average predictable time scale is 150-month. It is proposed that the optimal scaling region is determined by means of the minimum of square deviation for the least-squares straight fit, in order to obtaine the objective fractal dimension. The influence of the length and the noise of the data on the computed results is also discussed simply.
【Fund】: 云南省应用基础研究基金
【CateGory Index】: P182.41
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