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A Cusp Catastrophe Model of the Sticky Expectation of the Speculator in the Futures Markets

HUANG Chang-zheng(Dept. of Econ. & Bus. Man. of Wuyi Univ., Jiangmen 529020, China)  
The traditional study of speculative decision making usually lay particular stress on the two extremeness: the complete rationality (based on the suffcient probability information) and the complete irrationality (the external information is ignored). This is obviously not agreed with the fact that the real speculator holds limited rationality. In this paper, the typical expectation mode of the futures speculator is studied with the analysis on the multi-logical uncertainty of the futures lnarkets, it is found that the speculative expectation mode can be well simulated by the famous cusp catastrophe model, so that it is feasible to study the expectation mode of futures speculator on the basis of limited rationality.
【Fund】: 广东省自然科学基金!980896
【CateGory Index】: F713.35
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