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《Plant Science Journal》 2018-05
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Impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of Malus baccata( L.) Borkh. in China since the Last Glacial Maximum

Zou Xu;Peng Ye;Wang Lu;Li Yao;Zhang Wang-Xiang;Liu Xue;Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China;College of Biology and the Environment,Nanjing Forestry University;College of Forestry,Nanjing Forestry University;  
Malus baccata( L.) Borkh. is an important germplasm resource, with high ornamental,economic,and ecological value. In this study,we used the ENMeval packet to test the complexity and performance of the MaxEnt model under different regulation multipliers and feature combinations and chose a fine-tuned setting with the lowest complexity. Based on602 modern distribution records and eight environmental variables,we simulated the potential distribution of M. baccata during the Last Glacial Maximum,mid-Holocene,present,and2070 s( RCP 8.5). Percentage contribution,permutation importance,and Jackknife tests were used to evaluate the importance of environmental variables. Results showed that when the RM value was 2 and FC was LQHPT,the complexity and degree of overfitting of the model were relatively low. The prediction results of the Max Ent model were excellent,as indicated by theAUC value of 0.9272 ± 0.0019. Under current conditions,the highly suitable region for M.baccata covered Mt. Taihang,Mt. Guancen,and Mt. Lüliang of Shanxi Province,northeast Liaoning and Jilin,Shaanxi,Gansu,and Ningxia junction,northern Hebei,and central and southern Shandong. During the Last Glacial Maximum,the highly suitable distribution region in the north disappeared and moved southward. In the mid-Holocene,the potential distribution regions were similar to those of the present-day,though somewhat contracted to high altitude areas. By the 2070 s,the distribution in China will sharply contract to high altitude areas. Both temperature and precipitation factors restricted the potential geographical distribution of M.baccata,with the latter being more important. Predicting how climate change will affect geographic range can provide a scientific basis for the protection and management of the germplasm resources in M. baccata.
【Fund】: 江苏省农业科技自主创新资金项目(CX(16)1005-4-1);; 江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)~~
【CateGory Index】: S686
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