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Catastrophe model for pest population dynamics under meteorological influence

ZHANG Pingping;FENG Luzhi;LI Yuan;LI Zhen;ZHAO Huiyan;College of Science,Northwest A&F University;College of Plant Protection,Northwest A&F University;  
【Objective】According to the relationship of aphid population dynamics and meteorological factors,a catastrophe model of population dynamics was established to provide reference for aphid control.【Method】This article assumed that the study area was constant,while wheat varieties,natural conditions,and fertilization,and pesticides use basically remained unchanged.Then meteorological factors were detailed and temperature,humidity and growing conditions were used as control variables to establish the swallowtail catastrophe model of aphid population dynamics based on generalized logistic model.【Result】This paper constructed a population dynamic model considering temperature,relative humidity and crop growth,and established a swallowtail catastrophe model.The model was then used to predicted sudden outbreak of aphid.When aphids population dynamics were in bifurcation Ⅴ area and had the potential to change toⅠ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,and Ⅳ,aphids population system would produce mutation.When the control variables changed fromⅡ area toⅠ,Ⅲ,and Ⅴ,the stability of the system would not change.When the control variables changed from Ⅰ,Ⅲ and Ⅳ toⅤ,the stability of the system would not change either.The mutant model can predict the mutation behavior of aphid population during growth.【Conclusion】The established swallowtail catas-trophe model can predict the abrupt change of aphid population dynamics.
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