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《Journal for China AIDS/STD》 2003-03
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HIV/AIDS Epidemic Projection in Guangdong

HE Qun,YUAN Jian-hua,XU Yi,et al (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou Guangdong 510300,China)  
Objective Mirroring the actual epidemic of HIV/AIDS in Guangdong Province in order to guide the formulation of the evidence-based prevention strategy with the data from the surveillance system;Methods Integration the Qantitative and qualitative approaches were integrated into the interanationally applied Epimodel module,using the results from the surveillance and jthe special survey to estimate and project HIV/AIDS epidemic in the provime Results Druginjection and active sexuality are the main paths of transmission of HIV in Guangdong;the estimated HIV cases and about 18,500~32,800 in 1999 and by the end of 2010,they will be up to 149,000~253,000 HIV caes with 59,000~90,000 AIDS cases;Conclusion In spite of so many years's development of surveillance system in Guangdong,the actual situation of HIV/AIDS is still under-reported significantly The formulation of the prevention strategey should be based on the scientific estimation and projection as well as the surveillance data In order to meet the demands of the provincial mid and long term program,more effective projects targeted prevention shoud be put into effect without hesitation
【Fund】: 联合国开发规划署资助 (项目编号:CPR/ 96 / 40 2 )项目名称:多部合作预防控制艾滋病
【CateGory Index】: R181.3
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