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《Journal of Southwest Agricultural University》 1995-01
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FORECASTING STUDIES ON THE OCCURRENCE OF WHEAT APHIDS IN THE EARING STAGE OF THE CROP IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

Wu Shiyuan;Zhao Zhimo (Department of Plant Protection, Southwest Agricultural University,Chongqing 630716) Liu Niu; Li Yuan (Plant Protection Station of Sichuan Province)  
Using the meteorological data in March and the occurrence of wheat aphids in the earing stage of the crop in 5 representative counties of Sichuan (Zhongxian, Shuangliu, Yibin, Wusheng and Zizhong) in the past 11 years and adopting the fuzzy synthetic decision methods, a forecasting model for the occurrence of the pest was established. The historical coincidence was 94. 12% on the basis of returning measure using the forecasting factors. The actual forecasting accuracy of the 5 counties in 1991-1994 was 75. 00%. This indicated a satisfactory practical value of this model in forecasting the occurrence of wheat aphids in the earing stage.
【Fund】: 四川省科委“八五”攻关课题
【CateGory Index】: S135.122.2
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