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Modeling the evaluation for regional disaster chain risk based on elements at risk

Rong Lili;Liu Yuting;Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology;  
Major emergencies usually trigger secondary disasters which may form disaster chains and cause more serious consequences. Evaluating disaster chain risk can help implement chain-cutting disaster mitigation and avoid amplifying the consequence. Considering that major emergencies have various types and may occur in diverse regions, this paper proposes an evaluation model of regional disaster chain risk for different emergencies and different regions. Through analyzing the formation mechanism of disaster chain, this paper recognizes the core elements of disaster chain risk, i.e. the elements at risk, and builds evaluation indexes of regional disaster chain risk from both hazard and disasters-pregnant environment perspectives. On this basis,the evaluation model is then established. Finally, this paper evaluates the disaster chain risk of a specified region, including identifying the inherent disaster chain risk and the possible disaster chains in different disaster scenarios. The evaluation results demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
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